Pushing Crime Around the Corner? Estimating Experimental Impacts of...
Bogota intensified state presence to make high-crime streets safer. We show that spillovers outweighed direct effects on security. We randomly assigned 1,919 "hot spot" streets to eight months of...
View ArticleAdvertising Spending and Media Bias: Evidence from News Coverage of Car...
Do news media bias content in favor of advertisers? We examine the relationship between advertising by auto manufacturers in U.S. newspapers and news coverage of car safety recalls. This context allows...
View ArticleEducational Choice, Rural-urban Migration and Economic Development -- by...
Observing rapid structural transformation accompanied by a continual process of rural to urban migration in many developing countries, we construct a micro founded dynamic framework to explore how...
View ArticleRanking Firms Using Revealed Preference -- by Isaac Sorkin
This paper estimates workers' preferences for firms by studying the structure of employer-to-employer transitions in U.S. administrative data. The paper uses a tool from numerical linear algebra to...
View ArticleDynamic Trade, Endogenous Institutions and the Colonization of Hong Kong: A...
To explore the interplays between trade and institutions, we construct a staged development framework with multi-period discrete choices to study the colonization of Hong Kong, which served to...
View ArticleEmigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue...
During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the...
View ArticleComputerization and Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the United States...
The changes in technology that took place in the US during the last three decades, mainly due to the introduction of computerization and automation, have been characterized as "routine-substituting."...
View ArticleReligious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of...
Using novel microdata, we document an unintended, first-order consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a massive reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this...
View ArticleSparse Signals in the Cross-Section of Returns -- by Alexander M. Chinco,...
This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling 1-minute-ahead return forecasts using the entire cross section of lagged returns as candidate predictors....
View ArticlePopulists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election --...
The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake of the 2016 contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of voting patterns...
View ArticleWhy Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of...
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that...
View ArticleShadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation...
Traditional banking is built on four pillars: SME lending, access to public liquidity, deposit insurance, and prudential supervision. This vision has been shattered by repeated bailouts of shadow...
View ArticleEffects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets -- by Agha Ali Akram, Shyamal...
Rural to urban migration is an integral part of the development process, but there is little evidence on how out-migration transforms rural labor markets. Emigration could benefit landless village...
View ArticleArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth -- by Philippe Aghion, Benjamin...
This paper examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (A.I.) on economic growth. We model A.I. as the latest form of automation, a broader process dating back more than 200 years....
View ArticleBiased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments...
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood...
View ArticleEffects of Episode-Based Payment on Health Care Spending and Utilization:...
We study how physicians respond to financial incentives imposed by episode-based bundled payment (EBP), which encourages lower spending and improved quality for an entire episode of care. Specifically,...
View ArticleThe Economics of Scale-Up -- by Jonathan M.V. Davis, Jonathan Guryan, Kelly...
Most randomized controlled trials (RCT) of social programs test interventions at modest scale. While the hope is that promising programs will be scaled up, we have few successful examples of this...
View ArticleFood vs. Fuel? Impacts of Petroleum Shipments on Agricultural Prices. -- by...
Grain shippers and political figures in North Dakota and nearby states have voiced concern that the dramatic increases in shipments of crude oil by rail have caused service delays and higher costs. We...
View ArticleThe Effects of Perceived Disease Risk and Access Costs on Infant Immunization...
This paper examines the determinants of parental decisions about infant immunization. Using the exact timing of vaccination relative to birth, we estimate the effects of local pertussis outbreaks...
View ArticleSchool District Reform in Newark: Within- and Between-School Changes in...
In 2011-12, Newark launched a set of educational reforms supported by a gift from Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan. Using data from 2009 through 2016, we evaluate the change in Newark...
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